The saying went: “Past is prologue.” Meaning, it used to be useful to look backwards to understand what to expect in coming years. Well, that time has passed and now, in the era of accelerating physical effects from climate change, the best tool we have for understanding the future, weather-wise, are global climate models. This talk will marry state-of-the-art climate forecast data with an emerging methodology for prioritizing protective and adaptive actions based on consequence. We cannot protect everything, but for maximum resilience in the face of increasingly intense events, some things simply must not be allowed to fail.
- Key utility-relevant predictions from the 2022 IPCC report: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, with a focus on likely impacts to cities and infrastructure
- An introduction to what downscaled global climate can and cannot tell us about the projected temperatures and precipitation events for a given geographic location in a given year
- How contemplating risk starting with consequence can help utilities zero in on which assets most need protective and/or adaptive measures, and by when these actions should ideally take place
- Some hardening options and examples for various assets with emphasis on biggest-bang-for-the-protective-buck approaches